SEMO vs. Tennessee State: The high-stakes clash that could Shake up the OVC playoff picture

SEMO heads south to Nashville, Tennessee, to face off against the Tennessee State Tigers at Nissan Stadium, home of the NFL's Tennessee Titans. SEMO currently leads the OVC-Big South standings with a 9-2 overall record and a 6-1 conference record, with their lone conference loss coming against OVC rival Lindenwood. Tennessee State, holding second place in the OVC, enters the matchup with an 8-3 overall record and a 5-2 mark in conference play.

Tennessee State enters Saturday's matchup ranked No. 25 in the FCS Coaches Poll with an 8-3 record, suffering losses to North Dakota State, Tennessee Tech, and UT Martin. A victory would improve the Tigers to 6-2 in conference play, creating a two-way tie with SEMO, with Tennessee State earning the automatic FCS playoff bid due to tiebreaker rules. However, it’s not as simple as “win and in” for the Tigers. Tennessee State also needs Tennessee Tech to lose, as a three-way tie at 6-2 between Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, and SEMO would ultimately give the playoff spot to Tennessee Tech based on the season’s tiebreaker criteria.

SEMO holds a 6-1 conference record, with their lone loss coming against Lindenwood. Their path to securing the automatic bid to the FCS playoffs is more straightforward than Tennessee State's. For SEMO, it’s simple: win, and they’re in. A victory would give them a 7-1 record and sole possession of the OVC title. However, a loss doesn’t entirely dash SEMO’s playoff hopes. In the event of a loss to Tennessee State, SEMO would need either a four-way tie at 6-2 involving Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, UT Martin, and themselves, or a three-way tie at 6-2 with Tennessee State and UT Martin, to keep their playoff aspirations alive.

It’s a bit confusing, isn’t it? Here’s a simpler breakdown:

- If SEMO wins, they’re in.

- If Tennessee State wins, SEMO needs both Tennessee Tech and UT Martin to win for a chance to claim the playoff spot.

However, if Tennessee Tech wins and UT Martin loses, and Tennessee State wins, Tennessee Tech would represent the OVC in the playoffs. On the other hand, if UT Martin wins and Tennessee Tech loses, SEMO would secure the OVC’s playoff spot with a Tennessee State win

It’s a lot to take in, but hopefully, this clears up the OVC playoff picture. The key games to watch are SEMO vs. Tennessee State, UT Martin vs. Lindenwood, and Tennessee Tech vs. Eastern Illinois.

SEMO and Tennessee State will kickoff at 3:30 on Saturday night in Nissan Stadium.